How the Trajectory Index works
Six domains, 30+ government signals, one 0 to 100 score per district. Recomputed monthly.
The formula
Each signal is normalised nationally (0 to 100, where 50 = median). The Trajectory Score is the weighted average of six domain scores. A 3% gravity blend toward neighbouring districts smooths isolated anomalies.
Scores refresh monthly. A district's score can shift without local events if the national distribution changes.
Six domains
Weights reflect historical predictive power.
Price Opportunity
21%Value gap · price CAGR · rent CAGR · price-to-income · price YoY
How far below its fundamental ceiling a district is priced. Combines the value gap to county median, price and rent growth momentum, and affordability ratios.
Demand Pressure
27%Population growth · sales volume · rail usage · net migration · pop. acceleration · score momentum · neighbour score · transport connectivity · rail commute share · bus frequency
The breadth of people wanting to live in an area. Spans demographics, transaction volumes, rail and bus connectivity, and whether neighbouring districts are also rising.
Transformation
19%Business formation · IMD improvement · vacant trend · claimant trend · planning velocity · housing supply · café/artisan planning · tenure shift · renovation rate · transport infrastructure · transit investment
Structural change that has historically preceded price movement. Rising business formation, falling deprivation, declining vacancies, café and mixed use planning, and transport investment.
Economic Baseline
14%Household income · claimant rate · EPC average rating
Whether the local economy can sustain price appreciation. Income depth, employment strength, and housing stock quality form the foundation layer.
Safety
10%Crime rate · crime trend
Absolute crime rate and its three year trend. High crime with a strong downward trajectory still scores well.
Risk Ceiling
9%Flood risk · isolation · new-build share · NSIP burden · new-build pipeline
Caps otherwise strong scores where structural risks exist. Flood exposure, poor connectivity, new build oversupply, and negative infrastructure proximity.
Cycle adjustment
A national cycle_momentum index (0 to 1) captures whether the market favours momentum (capital chasing quality) or catch up (buyers seeking underpriced stock). Domain weights are modestly adjusted each month to reflect the current regime.
Context score
A ctx_score (0 to 1) classifies each district from sparse rural to dense urban core using population density, rail connectivity, and employment density. Prevents percentage changes from a small base being over scored.
Validation
Tested against subsequent price growth using Spearman rank correlation (ρ) across five windows.
| Window | Source | ρ | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 to 2015 | HPSSA 5yr | +0.441 | 2,291 |
| 2013 to 2015 | HPSSA 2yr | +0.557 | 2,291 |
| 2013 to 2018 | HPSSA 5yr | +0.554 | 2,291 |
| 2019 to 2024 | Land Registry | +0.188 | 2,292 |
| 2018 to 2023 | HPSSA | +0.236 | 2,292 |
Source: ONS HPSSA + Land Registry. Outliers above 50% CAGR excluded. Full validation →
better than chance
quartile lift (Q4/Q1)
top-decile hit rate
What the score is not
Not a property valuation
Operates at district level (e.g. E17), not property level. Always combine with a property specific assessment.
Not financial advice
Data summaries from public government sources. Always take independent financial advice before investing.
Probabilistic, not deterministic
A high score means characteristics that historically precede growth. It does not guarantee price appreciation.
Not a timing tool
Identifies where to look, not when to buy. Calibrated to 2 to 5 year holding periods, not quarterly moves.
All 2,391 district scores recompute monthly. Each carries a confidence rating (1 to 6) reflecting data completeness. Signal cadences range from monthly (Land Registry, police) to annual (ONS earnings, population).
See it in action
Explore live scores for 2,391 districts on the map, or run a full intelligence report on any UK postcode.